// THE OPTIONAL WORK INDEX — LIVE ECONOMIC + NEWS SIGNALS
How close are we to
work being optional?
Real-time tracker using BLS, FRED, World Bank, ILO economic data and AI-scored headlines to model Musk's prediction. Score changes daily as the world changes.
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0.00
/ 100 OWI
+0.00 today
+ Ahead of Schedule
// 10-yr horizon (2034)
2,842
days remaining
22.2% elapsed
// 20-yr horizon (2044)
6,494
days remaining
11.1% elapsed
// live momentum
×1.150
recent acceleration
// Latest News Signal — 7 headlines · last scored Mar 20, 3:21 PM UTC
+1.30 composite
Mixed positive signals today with AI demonstrating superior medical diagnosis capabilities and Nvidia's CEO indicating massive AI integration into engineering work. South Korean budget minister discussing long-term UBI preparation suggests policy awareness of automation's economic impacts.
+1.0
No one can price tech revolutions
ai_capability · Acknowledges AI as major tech revolution but focuses on investment uncertainty rather than capability advancement
+1.0
Where Will Oracle Be in 2 Years?
ai_capability · Oracle building AI infrastructure shows continued investment in AI capabilities, though concerns about spending suggest mixed signals
+2.0
AI outperforms conventional diagnosis for certain types of heart attacks: Study
ai_capability · AI demonstrating superior performance to human experts in medical diagnosis represents meaningful capability advancement
+1.0
Georgia Tech Study: Safe AI Not Enough
ai_capability · AI showing deceptive behavior indicates advancing capabilities but raises safety concerns
+2.0
Jensen Huang says he will be 'deeply alarmed' if his $500,000 engineer did not consume at least $250,000 of tokens
ai_capability · Nvidia CEO expecting massive AI token consumption by top engineers signals rapid integration of AI tools into high-skill work
+2.0
Budget minister nominee calls for 'long-term' preparation for universal basic income
wealth_distribution · Government official publicly discussing UBI preparation indicates policy consideration, though still in planning phase
+2.0
Budget minister nominee calls for long-term approach to basic income scheme
wealth_distribution · South Korean budget minister discussing UBI preparation shows policy momentum in major economy
// Sub-Indices — Weighted Composite Model
AI Capability
0.0
+0.98 live signal
Weight: 28% · 41/105 milestones
Next milestoneAI system achieves 85%+ on ARC-AGI benchmark — human-level general reasoning threshold met
Target: Jun 1, 2026
Humanoid Robotics
0.0
Weight: 22% · 19/73 milestones
Next milestoneTesla Optimus production exceeds 1,000 units — Tesla confirms commercial deployment in own factories
Target: Jun 1, 2026
Economic Abundance
0.0
Weight: 18% · 8/49 milestones
Next milestoneIMF or World Bank confirms AI contributing 0.5%+ to annual global GDP growth — published in WEO
Target: Jun 1, 2026
Labor Market Shift
0.0
Weight: 20% · 9/58 milestones
Next milestoneBLS reports AI-attributable job displacement exceeding 500,000 US workers in annual JOLTS report
Target: Jun 1, 2026
Wealth Distribution
0.0
+1.40 live signal
Weight: 12% · 6/40 milestones
Next milestoneFirst G20 nation enacts automation tax — proceeds fund displaced worker retraining programs
Target: Jun 1, 2026
// OWI Historical Trend (18 months)SCORE / 100
TRACKING LIVE SINCE MARCH 19, 2026
// Upcoming Milestones5 NEXT
Jun 1, 2026
AI system achieves 85%+ on ARC-AGI benchmark — human-level general reasoning threshold met
AI Capability
Jun 1, 2026
Tesla Optimus production exceeds 1,000 units — Tesla confirms commercial deployment in own factories
Humanoid Robotics
Jun 1, 2026
IMF or World Bank confirms AI contributing 0.5%+ to annual global GDP growth — published in WEO
Economic Abundance
Jun 1, 2026
BLS reports AI-attributable job displacement exceeding 500,000 US workers in annual JOLTS report
Labor Market Shift
Jun 1, 2026
First G20 nation enacts automation tax — proceeds fund displaced worker retraining programs
Wealth Distribution
// Completion ScenariosPROBABILITY
Acceleration2031
22%
AI compounds faster than predicted
Base Case2034
45%
Musk's 10-year horizon met
Moderate2038
24%
Steady progress, regulatory friction
Delayed2044
9%
20-year horizon required
// Recent Achievements (last 90 days)
Nov 24, 2025
Claude Opus 4.5 — first model to exceed 80% SWE-bench Verified (80.9%), best coding and agentic model
AI Capability · Anthropic
Dec 1, 2025
Agentic AI Foundation formed under Linux Foundation — Anthropic MCP reaches 10,000+ published servers
AI Capability · Linux Foundation
Dec 1, 2025
Enterprise AI spending reaches $37 billion in 2025 — up 16x from $2.3B in 2023 — Menlo Ventures data
Economic Abundance · Menlo Ventures
Dec 11, 2025
GPT-5.2 released — ARC-AGI-2 score 52.9%, OpenAI responds to Gemini 3 competitive pressure
AI Capability · OpenAI
Dec 31, 2025
$4.6 billion invested in humanoid robot developers in 2025 — IFR confirms 542,000 industrial robots installed
Humanoid Robotics · IFR World Robotics 2025
Jan 6, 2026
Boston Dynamics Atlas performs autonomous factory tasks at Hyundai — demonstrated at CES 2026
Humanoid Robotics · Boston Dynamics / Hyundai
Feb 5, 2026
Claude Opus 4.6 — parallel multi-agent coordination, agent teams capability for complex workflows
AI Capability · Anthropic
Feb 5, 2026
GPT-5.3-Codex — autonomous computer use, AI uses code as tool to operate computers end-to-end
AI Capability · OpenAI
// Methodology & Data Sources
FORMULA
OWI = Σ((SubIndex_i + LiveAdj_i) × W_i) × M + δ
SubIndex = S-curve milestone interpolation
LiveAdj = economic + news signal adjustments
M = milestone velocity momentum factor
δ = date-seeded daily micro-variance (±0.9)
LIVE DATASETS
BLS
US Unemployment
FRED
Productivity, GDP, LFPR
World Bank
Global GDP & hi-tech exports
ILO ILOSTAT
Global employment ratio
NewsAPI + AI
Headline scoring
SNAPSHOT
OWI Score26.37
Momentum ×1.1500
Daily δ+0.000
News Signal+1.30
TrajectoryAhead of Schedule
On Track 10yrYES
Calculated2026-03-21 20:58:51 UTC